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More SPC info on this site: 

SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Aug 15 2018 4:54 pm


Convective Tornado Hail Wind <= Move cursor over selections to display the selected graphic below.

Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 151620
SWODY1
SPC AC 151619

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
The main severe-storm threat area is over parts of the north-central
Plains region this afternoon and evening, for large hail and severe
gusts.

...SD/NE...
Water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough tracking eastward
across northeast WY.  This system will move into SD/NE this
afternoon, with strengthening winds aloft and height falls spreading
across the region.  Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning along the
SD/NE border, which will likely leave an outflow boundary that could
provide the focus for re-development later today.  12z CAM solutions
are consistent in the development of intense storms by late
afternoon, tracking east-southeastward across the SLGT risk area
into the evening.  Forecast soundings show rather steep mid level
lapse rates and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, along with strong
deep-layer shear.  This will promote the development of a few
supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a
tornado or two.

...Eastern CO/NM and the TX Panhandle...
Strong heating is occurring early today over southeast CO and
northeast NM, with weak upslope low-level flow.  Ample mid/upper
level moisture combined with moderate CAPE values, will result in
scattered thunderstorms over this region by mid-afternoon.  These
storms will spread eastward across the MRGL risk area during the
evening.  The strongest cells will be capable of gusty/damaging
winds and hail.

...OK into IN/KY...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from the
Ozarks into the lower Ohio Valley.  Pockets of heating around these
clusters will allow for the development of afternoon thunderstorms. 
Wind fields aloft are marginal for convective organization, but high
surface dewpoint values and rather strong winds in the 1-3km layer
suggest a few storms could occasionally produce gusty/damaging
winds.

...Northeast states...
Fast northwest flow aloft is present today across eastern Canada,
and will spread into parts of NY and New England later today. 
Multiple progressive shortwave troughs embedded in the flow will
help initiate scattered thunderstorms that track into the MRGL risk
region this afternoon and evening.  Relatively steep lapse rates and
MLCAPE values of 1500+ J/kg may result in hail and/or gusty/damaging
winds in a few of the stronger cells.  Forecast coverage intense
cells suggests that MRGL designation is appropriate today, but some
potential exists for an upgrade later today if coverage exceeds
expectations.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 08/15/2018

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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