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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Jun 24 2018 2:32 pm

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Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241302
SPC AC 241300

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z


Severe storms capable of significant damaging wind, large hail and
possibly a few tornadoes are expected from southeast Colorado
through southwest Kansas, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and
northwest Oklahoma. Other severe thunderstorms can be expected
across additional parts of Kansas and Nebraska as well as the
Mid-South region and Tennessee Valley.

...Eastern Colorado to south-central Plains...
Significant convection including an MCS that crossed
northern/eastern Oklahoma overnight and related outflow, as well as
regenerative post-MCS convection across northwest Oklahoma/southwest
Kansas, are considerable factors for the severe risk later today. It
seems likely that the greatest destabilization will occur on the
west/southwest fringes of this early-day activity, although some
northward retreat of the outflow-reinforced boundary may occur.
Moderate to strong destabilization appears most likely from
southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and western
Oklahoma late this afternoon/early evening. 

With aid of upslope flow, current thinking is that storms will
initially develop and intensify this afternoon along the Front Range
vicinity of east-central/southeast Colorado, and subsequently into
the south-central High Plains vicinity by late afternoon/early
evening. Aided by a mid-level jet accompanying the mid-latitude
shortwave trough and easterly low-level winds, more than sufficient
effective bulk shear will exist for supercells. Large hail, and
possibly a couple of tornadoes will be the initial threats. But
storms are likely to grow upscale into an MCS and continue generally
eastward with damaging wind becoming the primary threat this evening
into the overnight.

...Northern Kansas into central/eastern Nebraska and Mid-Missouri
Although the influence of extensive convection to the south may be a
detrimental factor, storms are expected to develop along a surface
boundary where the atmosphere should become moderately unstable
during the afternoon. Wind profiles will undergo some increase with
the approach of the upper trough with 30-35 kt effective bulk shear
supportive of multicells and possibly some supercell structures
capable of damaging wind and large hail through mid-evening.

...Mid-South to Tennessee Valley...
A well-organized and long-lived quasi-linear MCS continues to
persist across Arkansas early this morning, likely with aid of a
trailing MCV across far northeast Oklahoma. Various
convection-allowing models including overnight HRRR runs have tended
to erroneously predict a weakening of this convection. It is
plausible that this MCS persists and even re-intensifies within a
moist and diurnally destabilizing boundary layer. At the very least,
the parent MCV will likely provide favorable forcing for ascent, as
well an enhanced belt of mid-level winds/deep-layer shear, for
severe-conducive development into the afternoon as it spreads
eastward across the region. Damaging winds should be the most common
concern, but severe hail and even some tornado risk may exist
through early evening. 

...Mid-Atlantic States/Carolinas...
An east/northeastward-moving shortwave trough will influence the
region as it moves from the Ohio Valley toward the north-central
Appalachians, with moderate downstream destabilization expected
near/ahead of a front and surface trough. While low-level
convergence will not be overly strong in most areas, adequate
instability, especially when coupled with moderate deep-layer shear
over the Mid-Atlantic region, could allow for isolated severe
thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds and possibly some
hail this afternoon into early evening.

..Guyer/Marsh.. 06/24/2018



Day 3

Day 4

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