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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Oct 22 2018 4:54 am


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

120 
ACUS01 KWNS 220038
SWODY1
SPC AC 220036

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms may impact portions of north-central and
southeastern Arizona this afternoon, accompanied by some risk for
severe hail and locally strong wind gusts.

...01Z Outlook Update...
The ongoing Marginal risk area has been confined to a small part of
Pima/Cochise Counties and vicinity in Arizona.  Ongoing storms and
extensive overturning have lessened the severe threat here, though
steep mid-level lapse rates may result in a lingering hail threat
for the next couple of hours, though continued overturning and
nocturnal cooling should result in a limited threat headed into the
overnight.

A separated Marginal risk area has been added in areas of northern
Arizona north of Flagstaff.  Steep mid-level lapse rates and
favorable shear profiles have resulted in marginal supercell
structures this afternoon producing hail and perhaps a wind gust or
two.  This threat should persist over the next couple of hours, but
wane thereafter due to nocturnal cooling and attendant low-level
stabilization.

..Cook.. 10/22/2018

$$

        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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